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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."