Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.
Significant Hurdles in the Selection Process
Several members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
