🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.